Image credit: pixabay.com

Forecasting without significance tests?

Image credit: pixabay.com

Forecasting without significance tests?

Abstract

Statistical significance testing has little useful purpose in business forecasting, and other tools are to be preferred. For selecting or ranking forecasting methods (especially those based on models) there exist simple but powerful and practical alternative approaches that are not tests. It is suggested that forecasters place less emphasis on p values and more emphasis on the predictive ability of models.